Card draw probability tree
This probability tree represents two dependent card draws. The first draw changes the deck available for the second, so the probabilities below Heart differ from those below Non-heart. That is the key reason to use a tree: each later probability belongs to the earlier branch that led to it. The rounded values keep the diagram readable; a classroom version can replace them with exact fractions from a 52-card deck. Follow a path to describe an ordered outcome, then multiply the branch probabilities to calculate its probability. This pattern works for any sample drawn without replacement. It gives readers a concise reference they can reuse when discussing the result with colleagues.
Open it in the AI editor with a prompt pre-filled — keep what works, change what doesn't.
Scenario
Dependent draws
Key decisions
- First draw: Split by whether the first card is a heart.
- Second draw: Adjust the later chance because one card is gone.
- Paths: Name each two-card outcome.
When to reuse this
Use to introduce probability trees for sampling without replacement.
Frequently asked questions
Why are these events dependent?
Can I use fractions instead?
What does a path describe?
Tweak it with chat, export PNG/SVG, or fork it for your own use case.