Weather picnic probability tree
This probability tree models a plan that changes with the weather. It first separates the possible weather conditions, then assigns different chances to cancelling or holding the picnic after each condition. That second set of probabilities is conditional: the chance of cancelling is higher when it rains. The tree makes this dependence easier to read than a sentence or a table. It can be adapted for contingency planning, weather-sensitive events, or classroom exercises in conditional probability. To calculate a final outcome, multiply the branch probabilities from the first event through the second event. It gives readers a concise reference they can reuse when discussing the result with colleagues.
Open it in the AI editor with a prompt pre-filled — keep what works, change what doesn't.
Scenario
Conditional planning
Key decisions
- Weather split: Start with rain versus no rain.
- Conditional response: Use a different picnic decision after each forecast.
- Outcome labels: Name the resulting plan clearly.
When to reuse this
Use when a later event depends on an earlier condition.
Frequently asked questions
Why do the second probabilities differ?
Can a tree show dependent events?
How are final probabilities calculated?
Try the diagram makers.
Tweak it with chat, export PNG/SVG, or fork it for your own use case.