Product Defect Probability Tree

Product defect probability tree

This probability tree separates a product's actual condition from the result of an inspection. A defective item can be found or missed, while a good item can be falsely rejected or pass. The branch probabilities describe how the inspection behaves within each condition. This is a useful structure for quality teams because it distinguishes the true state from the observed result. Add the proportion of defective products at the first split when you need overall probabilities, such as the chance that a rejected item was genuinely defective. The same pattern also applies to tests, alarms, and screening processes. It gives readers a concise reference they can reuse when discussing the result with colleagues.

種類 決定木規格 Howard-Raiffa / CART-sklearn / taxonomyエンジン schematex-decisiontree更新日 2026/9/24

依頼内容

“A probability tree for product inspection: Defective or Not defective, then inspection results. A defect is found with probability 0.9, and a good product is falsely rejected with probability 0.05.”

次はこちらAdd the base rate of defective productsChange defect detection to 0.95

この図に含まれるもの

図の背後にある意思決定を読み解く。

01Actual state

Separate defective from good products.

02Test result

Show found, missed, false reject, and pass.

03Conditional rates

Put inspection accuracy on each branch.

Use for explaining sensitivity and false-positive rates in quality control.

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よくある質問

What is a false reject?

A good product that the inspection incorrectly marks as defective.

What is a missed defect?

A defective product that passes the inspection.

Can I add product defect rates?

Yes. Put those probabilities on the first split.