Subscription Churn Model Confusion Matrix

This confusion matrix evaluates a subscription model that predicts whether a customer will stay or churn in a defined period. The churn-to-retain cell represents missed churn risk, while retain-to-churn represents customers who might receive unnecessary retention outreach. The correct balance depends on outreach cost, customer experience and expected value, not accuracy alone. Teams should set the outcome window before calculating the matrix and use a holdout period that reflects current customer behavior. This example uses aggregate counts and is intended for model evaluation, not for making automated customer decisions without appropriate review.