Subscription Churn Model Confusion Matrix

This confusion matrix evaluates a subscription model that predicts whether a customer will stay or churn in a defined period. The churn-to-retain cell represents missed churn risk, while retain-to-churn represents customers who might receive unnecessary retention outreach. The correct balance depends on outreach cost, customer experience and expected value, not accuracy alone. Teams should set the outcome window before calculating the matrix and use a holdout period that reflects current customer behavior. This example uses aggregate counts and is intended for model evaluation, not for making automated customer decisions without appropriate review.

種類 ヒートマップエンジン echarts-heatmap更新日 2026/9/24

依頼内容

“Create a binary confusion matrix heatmap for a subscription churn model with actual rows Retain and Churn and predicted columns Retain and Churn. Use counts: actual Retain predicted Retain 640 and Churn 82; actual Churn predicted Retain 37 and Churn 141.”

次はこちらRename Retain to Stay.Add a note that the evaluation covers the June cohort.

この図に含まれるもの

図の背後にある意思決定を読み解く。

01Define the outcome window

State when churn is measured.

02Review missed churn

These are actual churners predicted to stay.

03Review unnecessary outreach

Predicted churners who stay may receive offers.

Use for prioritization analysis with privacy-reviewed, aggregated results.

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よくある質問

What is missed churn?

An actual churner predicted to Retain.

Why does false churn matter?

It can trigger unnecessary outreach or incentives.

What is the outcome window?

The defined period used to decide whether a subscriber churned.